Pension Outlook - New Asset Liability Management Assumptions Features Now Available

December 11, 2025
Circular Letter: 200-053-25
Topic: Actuarial

To: All CalPERS Employers

Purpose

The purpose of this Circular Letter is to inform you that actuarial assumptions for the June 30, 2025 actuarial valuations, adopted by the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) Board of Administration on November 18, 2025, are now reflected in Pension Outlook.

Background

Pension Outlook is an informational tool designed to help you plan and budget future pension costs. It allows you to evaluate cost drivers using various financial and investment scenarios.

In September 2025, Pension Outlook was updated with the June 30, 2024 actuarial valuation results, which established public agency employer contribution rates for fiscal year (FY) 2026-27 and state and school employer rates for FY 2025-26.

As part of the 2025 Asset Liability Management (ALM) process, the board voted to maintain the discount rate at 6.8% and adopted a Total Fund Portfolio Management investment strategy. The board also adopted new economic and demographic actuarial assumptions. These updated assumptions will affect employer contribution rates beginning in FY 2027-28 for public agencies and FY 2026-27 for state and school employers.

Additional Features

This release of Pension Outlook includes the following enhancements:

  • Updated Investment Return:  The FY 2024-25 final net investment return of 12.1% will populate automatically.
  • ALM Assumptions Checkbox: This feature allows you to estimate the impact of the new actuarial assumptions on your plan’s projected rates.
  • Assumption Change Only: If you want to find the effect of the assumption change by itself, check the ALM Assumptions box, then set the FY 2024-25 investment return to 6.8%.

Access Pension Outlook

Visit the CalPERS website to access the Pension Outlook Overview and follow the instructions to register and log in. You may also access the Pension Outlook User Manual (PDF, 2.33 MB) for additional guidance.

Pension Outlook provides valuable projection capabilities; however, it is not a substitute for professional actuarial analysis. Before relying on any output from this tool for major decisions, consult with your CalPERS actuary.

Questions

Call your CalPERS actuary to learn more or contact the CalPERS Customer Contact Center at 888 CalPERS (or 888-225-7377888-225-7377).

Scott Terando, Chief Actuary
Actuarial Office